Liverpool vs Manchester City is the standout match of a tantalizing weekend of Premier League action. Jones Knows brand your card. Aston Villa vs Chelsea, Sunday 2 p.m., live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER
Liverpool vs Manchester City is the standout match of a tantalizing weekend of Premier League action. Jones Knows brand your card.
Aston Villa vs Chelsea, Sunday 2 p.m., live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Chelsea will win without cashing at 2/1 with Sky Bet? This one reeks of the best bet of the weekend.
When it comes to stinks, we have to talk about Aston Villa’s tame attack. Apparently, doctors advise people suffering from insomnia to take a subscription to Villa Park.
It was truly a pitiful attacking performance at Nottingham Forest – a side who had already lost their last five Premier League games. Villa’s expected goal tally of 0.69 was the eighth time in their last 10 games that they had gone below one, indicating a clear problem in their ability to create good quality chances. The eye test also proves it with Phillipe Coutinho, Ollie Watkins and Emi Buendia all looking lost and out of ideas.
Based on the metrics, they should have been beaten to zero in their two meetings with the traditional top six teams this season, creating 0.27 on four shots against Manchester City and 0.45 on four shots against Arsenal. Defensively they seem fairly secure in their form, but Chelsea arrive confident and fluid under new boss Graham Potter, who is getting his message across earlier than expected.
Chelsea won four consecutive games in all competitions for the first time since March and kept three successive clean sheets for the first time since February. Make four please, Graham.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2 | JONES KNOWS THE BEST BET: Chelsea win to zero (2/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Leeds v Arsenal, Sunday 2pm
We don’t have much evidence to work with, but Leeds’ games against the top six at Elland Road should be fun under Jesse Marsch. His team now plays with a clear identity. It’s a brave style of football that leaves them terribly exposed if smart, complex teams break their press, but that’s what you get with the risk-reward type of football.
Arsenal are undoubtedly a team capable of exploiting this but, as Leeds showed in their 3-0 win over Chelsea earlier this season, their attacking patterns create great chances. So, a wacky game could be on the cards and those looking to support the goal line on total should fill their boots.
Both teams score and over 3.5 goals at 2/1 with Sky Bet should give you a good run.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-4
Manchester United vs Newcastle, Sunday 2 p.m.
My gut tells me Manchester United are a valuable touch here around Evens with Sky Bet, but I avoid investing financially in Newcastle games. They confuse me as I am convinced they are overvalued by the markets, especially in attack, but they have just scored nine goals in their last two games. Suddenly, my brain is exhausted.
Rest assured that if they can grab three points here in a dominating display, I will have to revise my opinion.
One area they are sure to find joy in will be set pieces. No team has posted more shots (55, 14 more than any other team) and created a higher expected goals figure (5.01) from set pieces this season than Newcastle. Meanwhile, Man Utd conceded the third-most shots from set pieces this season and watched it all at sea in the closing stages at Goodison Park last weekend when Everton went straight.
That makes Dan Burn (28/1), Fabian Schar (11/1) and Sven Botman (16/1) all runners in the goalscoring market at all times, but a more holistic way to get the angle of Newcastle’s free kick is from returning chief designer Kieran Trippier to earn an assist at 7/2 with Sky Bet. He has produced the most passes into the opposing box of any player in the Premier League this season and it was surprising to discover that his assist for Bruno Guimaraes last weekend was his first since joining Newcastle. Another could be on the way.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Southampton v West Ham, Sunday 2pm
There is a frenzy coming. The subject will be Lucas Paqueta, who will take the Premier League by storm over the next six weeks. I had the pleasure of seeing him up close on Sunday in West Ham’s win over Fulham and it’s easy to see why such excitement was caused when the Hammers secured his unlikely signing. Paqueta was a class apart in the 3-1 win over Fulham, linking up with Gianluca Scamacca in devastating fashion. The Brazilian created three chances for his striker, who scored one when he probably should have finished all three.
“If you’re a centre-forward, you want to play with Paqueta,” David Moyes said afterwards.
Playing in a free role in this West Ham side that has plenty of defensive protection is going to suit a player of such silk and skill. Still, the markets haven’t quite given him the respect he deserves, so we have to enjoy it while we can, starting with this clash where West Ham are taken to claim three Premier League wins in a row. . They will be too savvy and carry too many threats for a winding saint.
But my eyes were drawn to 9/2 with Sky Bet on Paqueta registering another assist. I’d be surprised if this lad doesn’t get more than seven assists at the end of the season judging by the freedom given to him and his creative touch, so these current prices are worth using as long as they last. Scamacca to score another goal assisted by Paqueta is also overvalued at 14/1 with Sky Bet.
Just for reference, Sky Bet pays on an assist which is registered by Fantasy Football rather than Opta. For all bets involving assists, the following rule will apply: “An assist is defined as the finishing pass or the pass followed by a shot leading to the recipient of the ball scoring a goal. It also includes the following actions: Penalty won; Attempt saved; shot hit woodwork, rebound scored; instigated own goal by shot/pass.”
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2 | JONES KNOWS THE BEST BET: Lucas Paqueta to record an assist (9/2 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!) & Gianluca Scamacca to score on an assist by Paqueta (14/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Liverpool vs Manchester City, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Being able to get 3/1 with Sky Bet over Liverpool in a home game sounds like one of those ridiculous sign-up offers from bookmakers – but it’s the reality of their situation. It is Liverpool’s worst start to the Premier League season under Jurgen Klopp and they have already taken 14 points less than this stage in their 19/20 title-winning campaign.
That said, Anfield with an underdog mentality is a dangerous place no matter the opposition. No team has won there in the Premier League for 27 games. Their attacking metrics also suggest Klopp’s men are potentially on two goals in this game, so City may need to score three to win. This makes a pro-Liverpool result a sensible price strategy.
Liverpool have scored at least twice in each of their last four meetings with Manchester City in all competitions – no team has ever scored two or more goals in five consecutive games against a team managed by Pep Guardiola before.
Obviously, since the addition of Erling Haaland, City seem incredibly ruthless in attack, but when a quality counter-attacking opposing team succeeds against them, the balance of their defensive play leaves them vulnerable to concession. In games against Newcastle, Crystal Palace and Manchester United this season, they have scored eight goals.
It makes me uneasy if I’m going to back them at 4/5 with Sky Bet for this away win. I still think a draw will be seen as a good result by Guardiola at this stage of the season and it has been the result of three of the last four Premier League meetings. In fact, since Guardiola took charge of Manchester City, the aggregate score from the teams’ 17 encounters reads Liverpool 28-30 Manchester City. Historically, there is little in between.
The game to finish 1-1, 2-2 or 3-3 at 7/2 with Sky Bet seems like quite an attractive game.